Papers

Current Working Papers

Estimating Preferences from Surveys

• Learning Preferences from Conjoint Data: A Hybrid Structural Deep Learning Approach (with Jens Hainmueller and Yiqing Xu)

Multidimensional Elections

• Multidimensional Elections (with John Duggan) 
• Partisan Alignment and Extremism in Multidimensional Elections (with John Duggan)
• Electoral Competition over Culture and Economics (with John Duggan)
• Electoral Competition over Multidimensional Tax Policy (with John Duggan)

Depolarization 

• How Polarization Ends (with Alex Lee and Theo Serlin)
• Depolarization and Realignment (with Alex Lee and Theo Serlin)

Computational Social Choice

• Ranked Choice Voting, the Primaries System, and Political Extremism: Theory and Simulations (with Rohan Cherivirala, Roshni Thangavelu Truax, and Karsen Wahal)

Other Papers

• Motivated Reasoning and Information Aggregation (with Kyungtae Park and Tomer Zaidman)
• The Political Economy of the Middle Income Trap (with Steve Haber and Alex Lee)
• Slavery, Politics, and Causality (with Matt Blackwell and Maya Sen)
• Building Trust in Government: The Opportunities and Challenges of Adverse Shocks (with Edoardo Grillo and Harry Pei)
• Asymmetries in Cricket: The Effects of Winning the Toss on Winning the Match (with Apoorva Lal, Derek Willis and Gaurav Sood) [Nontechnical Summary]
• Topological Foundations of the Spatial Model

Published and Forthcoming Papers

• Selective Exposure and Political Competition (with Peter Buisseret, Adam Meirowitz and Floyd Zhang), Journal of Politics, Vol. 87, July 2025, pp. 1195-98.
• Political Accountability under Moral Hazard (with Elliot Lipnowski and João Ramos), American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 79, April 2025, pp. 641-52.
• Electoral Campaigns as Dynamic Contests (with Edoardo Grillo, Takuo Sugaya and Eray Turkel) [formerly titled Dynamic Campaign Spending] Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 22, December 2024, pp. 2782-2826. [Supplemental Appendix] [Replication]
• Historical Persistence (with Matt Blackwell and Maya Sen), in Jeff Jenkins and Jared Rubin (eds.), Oxford Handbook of Historical Political Economy, Oxford University Press, January 2023.
• Equality of Opportunity as a Measure of Development (with John Roemer), in Swarnim Waglé and Kanni Wignaraja (eds.), The Great Upheaval: Resetting Development Policy and Institutions for the Decade of Action in Asia and the Pacific, Cambridge University Press, July 2022.
• Paths to the Frontier (with Juan Ortner), American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, Vol. 14, February 2022, pp. 30-69.
• Combining Outcome-Based and Preference-Based Matching: A Constrained Priority Mechanism (with Kirk Bansak and Jens Hainmueller), Political Analysis, Vol. 30, January 2022, pp. 89-112 (winner of the 2020 Gosnell Prize for Excellence in Political Methodology).  [Published Version] [Replication]
• Security in the Absence of a State: Traditional Authority, Livestock Trading and Maritime Piracy in Northern Somalia (with Robin Harding and Andy Harris), Journal of Theoretical Politics, Vol. 32, October 2020, pp. 497-537 (winner of the 2022 Elinor Ostrom Award for Best Article Published in the Journal of Theoretical Politics). [Replication]
• Path Dependence in European Development: Medieval Politics, Conflict and State Building (with Alex Lee), Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 52, December 2019, pp. 2171-2206. [Supplemental Information] [Replication]
• A Behavioral Foundation for Audience Costs (with Edoardo Grillo), Quarterly Journal of Political Science, Vol. 14, April 2019, pp. 159-90.
• Economic Foundations of the Territorial State System (with Alex Lee), American Journal of Political Science, Volume 62, October 2018, pp. 954-66. [Supplemental Appendix]
• Analyzing Causal Mechanisms in Survey Experiments (with Matt Blackwell and Maya Sen), Political Analysis, Volume 26, October 2018, pp. 357-78. [Replication]
• Sons of the Soil: A Model of Assimilation and Population Control (with David Laitin and Anna Zhang), Journal of Theoretical Politics, Volume 30, April 2018, pp. 184-223.
• Explaining Preferences from Behavior: A Cognitive Dissonance Approach (with Matt Blackwell and Maya Sen), Journal of Politics, Volume 80, April 2018, pp. 400-411. [Online Appendix]
• Progressive Learning (with Juan Ortner), Econometrica, Volume 85, November 2017, pp. 1965-1990. [Supplemental Appendix]
• Sincere Voting in Large Elections (with Adam Meirowitz), Games and Economic Behavior, Volume 101, January 2017, pp. 121-131.
• Information Aggregation Failure in a Model of Social Mobility, Games and Economic Behavior, Volume 100, November 2016, pp. 257-272. [Older version called Equilibrium False Consciousness]
• Explaining Causal Findings without Bias: Detecting and Assessing Direct Effects (with Matt Blackwell and Maya Sen), American Political Science Review, Volume 110, August 2016, pp. 512-529. [Supplemental Information] [Replication] [DirectEffects R Package]
• The Political Legacy of American Slavery (with Matt Blackwell and Maya Sen), Journal of Politics, Volume 78, July 2016, pp. 621-641 (lead article; winner of the 2016 Joseph L. Bernd Best JOP Paper Award). [Supplemental Information] [Replication]
• Caste Politics, Corruption and Distribution in India (with John Roemer and Rohini Somanathan), Research in Economics, Volume 69, September 2015, pp. 336-352.
• War with Crazy Types (with Edoardo Grillo), Political Science Research and Methods, Volume 3, May 2015, pp. 281-307. [Blog Post]
• Multidimensional Poverty with Missing Attributes (with John Roemer), Economics Letters, Volume 130, May 2015, pp. 51-55.
• Delays and Partial Agreements in Multi-Issue Bargaining (with Juan Ortner), Journal of Economic Theory, Volume 148, September 2013, pp. 2150-2163. [Older Version with More Results]
• The Calculus of the Security Dilemma (with Kris Ramsay), Quarterly Journal of Political Science, Volume 8, April 2013, pp. 183-203.
• The Maoist Insurgency in Nepal and the Political Economy of Violence, in M. Lawoti and A. Pahari (eds.), The Maoist Insurgency in Nepal: Revolution in the 21st Century, London: Routledge, 2010. [Data File]